S&P 500 - 2005

The following graph plots the year-to-date performance of the index for 2005 compared to the probability calculated by a random walk model.

Initial Value: 1211.92 Hist. Volatility: 0.61% Annual Drift: 7% Final Value: 1248.29 Percentile: 39%
Click on the image for the high resolution version.

The high to date and low to date prices of the stock plotted against a random walk model for 2005 (what's this?).